Economic cycle dating
Using data on user attributes and interactions from an online dating site, we estimate mate preferences, and use the Gale-Shapley algorithm to predict stable matches.The predicted matches are similar to the actual matches achieved by the dating site, and the actual matches are approximately efficient.Even so, the 12-month expansion beginning in July 1980 and ending in July 1981 was one of the shortest on record in the NBER's business cycle chronology which dates back to 1854, and the shortest since WWII.The expansion of 1912 lasted twelve months; the expansion of 1919 lasted 10 months.
Thus, mate preferences, without resort to search frictions, can generate sorting in marriages.In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions.The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".However, we underpredict some of the correlation patterns; search frictions may play a role in explaining the discrepancy.
CAMBRIDGE, January 06 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met today and identified July 1981 as the most recent peak in U. In the opinion of the committee, there is no doubt that the U. Industrial production in November 1981 was 146.5, well below its level of 153.9 in July.The term animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Shiller wrote that the term "...refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith.